|The Carbon Fraud - part one
|HOW CLIMATE STATISTICS ARE BEING COOKED
|Western economies are in peril : not so much from the financial crisis, from which they should eventually recuperate, but from the Great Global Warming Swindle. For western politicians are hell-bent on spending trillions of dollars to eradicate carbon from our economies, exporting in the process millions of western jobs to Russia, Brazil, India, and China.
And if this weren´t enough, consequences on the environment will be catastrophic. For windfarms, solar plants, bio fuels, and other useless endeavours are destroying what´s left of wilderness on the planet - not to speak of landscapes and quality of life.
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THE IPCC, AL GORE, AND THOUSANDS OF GLOBAL WARMING ACTIVISTS HAD IT ALL WRONG : THE CLIMATE IS ACTUALLY COOLING, IN SPITE OF AN ACCELERATION IN CO2 EMISSIONS
Three global temperature data sets - MET OFFICE Hadley Center, RSS-MSU, and University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) - show that the world´s climate has not warmed since the peak of 1998. In fact, it has cooled significantly. As at the end of September 2008, the monthly mean global temperature was 0.16 ºC above the 1979-1998 average, as compared to 0.76ºC in April 1998 and 0.59ºC in January 2007 - a drop of half a degree in 10 years ( UAH figures - see footnote 1 ). Has global warming turned into global cooling ? It is too early to tell, but the correlation between CO2 emissions and temperature is more doubtful than ever.
Graph as at April 13, 2008 from Met Office Hadley Center, an Executive Agency of the UK Ministry of Defence (2). The cooling anomaly got even more pronounced in May, then it eased to the present level that may be seen here : Updated Had-Crut data
The climate period anterior to the one shown above was known as " The little Ice Age ". The natural recuperation from this exceptionally cold period, by about 1º C from 1860 to 1998, was hijacked by climate alarmists and attributed to CO2, which they claim is the major driver of climate (3).
They are helped in this by the public, who has a short memory and forgot that, even as emissions of CO2 greatly increased after World War II, the climate cooled. The cooler global temperature from ca.1945 to 1980 is evident in the above graph and in all others that have been published. So noticeable it was that a "cooling scare" started to take hold in the seventies. Here is what could be read in the media in those years :
a) "a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery" ( International Wildlife, July 1975 )
b) "the world´s climatologists are agreed" that we "prepare for the next ice age" ( Science Digest, February 1973 ).
- Note the scientific consensus, already an ingredient in the brew.
c) "the North Atlantic is cooling down about as fast as an ocean can cool" glaciers "have begun to advance" and "growing seasons in England and Scandinavia are getting shorter" - (The Christian Science Monitor, 27 August 1974).
- Sounds familiar ? If we searched a little, we might find articles about the looming extinction of some animal species.
d) "many signs pointing to the possibility that the Earth may be heading for another ice age" - (New York Times, August 14 1975).
- "Many signs pointing" ? - Pfui ! Scaremongering made progress since the seventies : today the IPCC is, ahem, "90% sure" that the climate is going in the opposite direction.
e) " Science magazine, March 1975, reported "the approach of a full-blown 10,000-year ice age." " - Washington Post, May 22, 2008 (4).
- But the editors of the peer-reviewed science magazine were more objective than they are today in their treatment of climate skeptic scientists. They have since become politically correct about global warming, which is a denial of scientific objectivity.
f) “The cooling has already killed thousands of people in poor nations.... If it continues, and no strong measures are taken to deal with it, the cooling will cause world famine, world chaos, and probably world war, and this could all come about by the year 2000.” -
(Lowe Ponte, The Cooling, 1976)
- As you can see, the scaremongering rhetoric hasn´t changed one iota.
And incredibly as it sounds, global cooling was blamed on the same causes : "The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord with the increase in global air pollution associated with industrialisation, mechanisation, urbanisation and exploding population." - Reid Bryson, "Global Ecology; Readings towards a rational strategy for Man", 1971.
- Plus ça change, plus c´est la même chose !
In the eighties, after 35 years of cool temperatures, the climate started warming again. It should have been an enormous relief, as the threat of a devastating ice age was going away. But it wasn´t, really. As noted by Bertrand Russell : " Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones."
So when, in the eighties, Margaret Thatcher rekindled the century-old idea of global warming in order to break the National Union of Mineworkers and go nuclear, many saw the possibilities (5). The idea, in two decades, snowballed into something huge : a new moral order that wants to change our lives and make us pay for our alleged sins. A godless religion, in a way.
Since the Iron Lady´s tactical move, billions of dollars have been spent by governments to fund research with the tacit understanding that it must bring proof that man-made CO2 is the main driver of climate. Dissenting scientists are kept away from this manna. Activists such as Friends of the Earth have also prospered with public subsidies (6). New bureaucracies have flourished, whose mission it is to help reduce emissions of CO2 and propagate the new faith. Massive public investments have been made in intermittent energies, and new, wide-ranging, useless but extremely costly carbon-reduction programmes are soon to be launched by western governments. Both will make the fortune of special interests on the back of taxpayers and consumers, ruining the economy in the process.
NOTES ON CARBON: CO2 is a beneficial and vital gas, not the villain depicted by climate alarmists. Sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide are pollutants, CO2 is not. Carbon is the basic ingredient of life on earth. It is NOT the enemy. In fact we need more of it, not less, as revealed by scientific evidence to be described and referenced in Part Two. And I am not being paid by Big Oil or King Coal to say this ; sorry if it disappoints some people.
Wikipedia are known for censoring entries that do not fit the man-made global warming theory, yet they forgot to snip this one : "Plants require carbon dioxide to conduct photosynthesis, and greenhouses may enrich their atmospheres with additional CO2 to boost plant growth, since its low present-day atmosphere concentration is just above the "suffocation" level for green plants." (12).
"Just above the suffocation level", Wiki says, and the graph in the next link confirms this most eloquently - it is an eye-opener. So why are we being brainwashed with the fiction that there is too much CO2 in the atmosphere ?
More on this here : THE WRONG DEVIL
And more on the lies we are being told about carbon and CO2 will be developped in Part Two.
From RSS-MSU : "global, monthly time series of brightness temperature anomaly for channels TLT, TMT, TTS, and TLS. For Channel TLT (Lower Troposphere) and Channel TMT (Middle Troposphere), the anomaly time series is dominated by ENSO events and slow tropospheric warming. The three primary El Niños during the past 20 years are clearly evident as peaks in the time series occurring during 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98, with the most recent one being the largest. Channel TLS (Lower Stratosphere) is dominated by stratospheric cooling, punctuated by dramatic warming events caused by the eruptions of El Chichon (1982) and Mt Pinatubo (1991). Channel TTS (Troposhere / Stratosphere) appears to be a mixture of both effects."
RSS-MSU data - scroll down 2/3 of the way
The lack of warming since 1998, and the sharp cooling in 2007-2008, are irrefutable scientific evidence that CO2 is not the main driver of climate. This cooling is happening when CO2 emissions are accelerating with the emergence of new industrials giants such as China and India. The post-war cooling period of 35 years also proves the point. But the vested interests created by the hemorrhage of public funds over the global warming myth are not ready to give up. The money enables them to continue throwing their weight around, financing bogus studies and silencing the growing number of dissenting scientists. Outcast as "heretics" and "deniers", an invisible barrier keeps these from airing their views on television. When the documentary "The Great Global Warming Swindle" was broadcast in the UK, Channel 4 was reprimanded by OFCOM, the television watchdog (7). The broadcasters have learned their lesson.
Reality being the enemy of prophets and snake oil merchants, climate alarmists smartly changed the name of their product from “global warming” to “climate change”. This way, warming or cooling, the prophets would always be right. A win-win situation was thus created in favour of the spin doctors, one which would perpetuate the hemorrhage of public funds in their favour.
The climate change dupery has been aptly described in these words : “ all observations validate the belief system known as Climate Change. Drought, flood, heat, cold, average, extreme, all can be interpreted to support this orthodoxy. In logic this is known as a tautology. Therefore the word of the century is ClimaTautology, and its practitioners ( their numbers are legion ) are ClimaTautologists."
But people are more easily fooled if temperature statistics are manipulated. This is where James Hansen comes into the picture.
More widely used by the media than UAH, RSS or Met Office, there is a fourth global temperature data set : it is made available by NASA GISS. It is at considerable variance with the three others. It may be described as “alarming”, whereas the others convey the opposite impression. The difference lies in the various statistical adjustments performed by GISS over the years, all of them producing more apparent warming, which is against the odds. The IPCC charts and figures, reflecting these adjustments, were questioned over what looked like a partisan manipulation of the data (8).
In addition, arctic temperatures obtained through extrapolation have been incorporated by GISS, to make up for the lack of recording stations on the arctic ice cap – a procedure that lends itself to bias. (9)
These controversial adjustments of the raw data take added significance when it is known that James Hansen, head of GISS, is a world-famous global warming activist. This may interfere with his objectivity when manufacturing statistics that are used by politicians to launch controversial policies he himself supports. And there are more indications that he has been manipulating the data :
" It was McIntyre who last year forced Hansen to publish revised figures for US surface temperatures, to show that the hottest years of the 20th century were not in the 1990s, as Hansen had claimed, but in the 1930s. He has now shown that Hansen had been adjusting almost all his pre-1970 global temperature figures downwards, by as much as 0.5 degrees, and his post-1970 figures upwards." (10)
Steven Goddard further says “ (expert US scientists ) noted the increasingly glaring discrepancy between the figures given by GISS, which show temperatures continuing to race upwards, and those given by the other three main data sources, which all show temperatures having fallen since 1998..."
I reproduce below the manipulated graph from GISS :
Graph from Hansen´s NASA-GISS. It says : "Line plot of global mean land-ocean temperature index, 1880 to present. The dotted black line is the annual mean and the solid red line is the five-year mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. (Last modified: 2008-01-11) "
NASA-GISS graphs - scroll down to the graph of monthly averages starting from 1998 to get a different perspective
Quite different from the other graphs, isn´t it ? Also note that it wasn´t updated since January. Cynics say that GISS experts are looking for new "adjustments" to make so that the cooling doesn´t look so much like cooling... They won´t be disappointed : GISS is actually preparing new adjustments :
"Effective June 9, 2008, our analysis moved from a 15-year-old machine (soon to be decommissioned) to a newer machine; this will affect some results, though insignificantly. Some sorting routines were modified to minimize... etc." ----- see :
GISS - MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO COME
I may be proven wrong on the June 2008 adjustments, but in view of GISS´s past record, the odds are in my favour. This being said, I would love to be wrong, and to see GISS graphs show reality instead of fiction. Let´s wait and see until the updated graph is published.
To understand how the GISS graph to January 2008 ( as shown above ) was manipulated, look here : GODDARD - A TALE OF TWO THERMOMETERS
The tragedy for us, ordinary citizens, is that politicians, in a self-serving way, are only paying attention to these manipulated statistics and deliberately ignoring the more credible data-sets from RSS, UAH and Met-office. And some go as far as cooking the books to make their climate policies appear viable : COOKING THE BOOKS
Says Professor Emeritus Fred Singer : " As long as he ( James Hansen ) has control of an apparently authoritative dataset which shows that global warming is increasing, he can sustain the climate change scare. And, as Booker observes, it is on his alarmist figures that our politicians are basing all their proposals for irrevocably changing our lives. " (11)
In fact, we are simply facing the biggest con job ever. And unless the media at large denounce this political, environmental and financial swindle, this is what we may expect as a result :
- millions of jobs exported to Russia, Brazil, India and China ( due to carbon taxes, mostly imposed via cap-and-trade schemes )
- poverty at home ( high energy and food costs, unemployment )
- ruined landscapes ( thousands of costly windfarms everywhere)
- vanished rain forests ( converted to oil palms and other bio-fuel crops )
- greatly impoverished bird life ( wind turbines kill on average 25 birds/year, and we´ll soon have 1 million of these bird-choppers in the world - plus additional thousands of miles of HT power lines killing ~400 birds/mile/year ).
Thanks for nothing, Al Gore, James Hansen, Arnold Schwarzenegger et al. !
And for those of you who thought bird societies would denounce the killing of birds by wind farms, and the pseudo-scientific studies alleging low bird mortality at windfarms, here is an education : Windfarms, ornithologists, and bird societies
RSPB executives are causing severe harm to bird life
Windfarms - the bird massacre continues.
" There is no nonsense so errant that it cannot be made the creed of the vast majority by adequate governmental action." - Bertrand Russell
" We have met the enemy, and he is us." - Pogo
More to come on the swindle that will destroy the West : “The Carbon Fraud - part two”, whose link will be posted here eventually.
Mark Duchamp.........................................................August 26, 2008
Director, climate change and alternative energies
Iberica 2000, Spain
Other articles by the same author :
The negative effects of windfarms: links to papers published by Mark Duchamp
Photos of birds killed by wind turbines, of soil and water contamination by wind turbines, of turbines on fire, etc.
FOOTNOTES - REFERENCES - LINKS :
( please report any links that may have become inoperative, to: firstname.lastname@example.org )
(1) - Satellite-measured UAH temperature anomalies --------monthly average global temperature measured against the 20-year average 1979-1998 - expressed in degrees Celsius - SEE THIRD COLUMN FOR GLOBAL FIGURES. In May and June, temperature anomalies were significantly below the 1979-1998 average. In September they are 0.16 ºC. above. The cooling since the peak of 1998 is of 0.50 ºC ( going up the column to 1998 we find a high of 0.76 ºC. ).
(2) - Is the earth getting warmer, or cooler?.
(3) - "...Gore’s most egregious error is his contention that these
high CO2 values actually caused the temperature rises.
What he knows but fails to mention is that these same data
show that the changes in temperature always precede the changes
in CO2 by about a thousand years.
The temperature increases or decreases come first, and it is
after that that the CO2 follows. Any objective scientist looking at that
result would conclude that it is the warming that is causing the CO2
increase, not the other way around as Gore claims. "
The Lynching of Carbon Dioxide -
The Innocent Source of Life ---------- page 10 of pdf document.
" The most authoritative study of the lifetime of CO2 in the
atmosphere was done by a Norwegian, Professor Tom Segalstad
the University of Oslo. The measured lifetime, based on the studies
of some 50 independent researchers is at most about 5 years."
Yet ( a bit earlier on the same page 14) :
" The global warming advocates including the IPCC argue that
the CO2 we emit into the atmosphere lasts for centuries. "
The Lynching of Carbon Dioxide -
The Innocent Source of Life ---------- page 14 of pdf document.
“ In comparison to water in all of its forms, the effect
of the carbon dioxide increase over the last century on the
temperature of the earth is about as significant as
a few farts in a hurricane!”
The Lynching of Carbon Dioxide -
The Innocent Source of Life ---------- page 6 of pdf document.
(4) - “Science magazine, March 1975, reported "the approach of a full-blown 10,000-year ice age." - Washington Post.
(5) - How global warming started - Richard Courtney
(6) - “ Last year, Friends of the Earth Europe received 50% of their funding from the EU and EU national governments “ - Siim Kallas, Vice-President of the European Commission responsible for Administrative Affairs, Audit and Anti-Fraud.
Friends of the Earth Europe
(7) - The Great Global Warming Swindle - VIDEO
Channel 4 reprimanded by OFCOM
(8) - “There have been six major revisions in the warming figures in recent years, all in the same direction. So it´s like flipping a coin six times and getting tails each time. The chance of that occurring is 0.016, or less than one in 50. That doesn´t mean that these revisions are all hooey, but the probability that they would all go in one direction on the merits is pretty darned small.” Patrick Michaels, Wall Street Journal, April 18, 2008 – Professor Michaels is senior fellow in environmental studies at the Cato Institute and professor of environmental sciences at University of Virginia.
(9) - " Our analysis differs from others by including estimated temperatures up to 1200 km from the nearest measurement station. The resulting spatial extrapolations and interpolations...etc.".
"As a creator and purveyor of meteorological measurement technology I have never been a fan of “extrapolated” data", says Anthony Watts in his critique of GISS methodology.
(10) - GISS suspect of manipulating data
Hansen has been reworking recent temperatures upwards and older temperatures downwards - which creates a greater slope and the appearance of warming
The Hansen code is a demented mess
(11) - Hansen´s data manipulation ----------- go to # 3 : " A CLIMATE OF DECEPTION -
A comment on Christopher Booker’s article in The Telegraph (UK) "
(12) - Wikipedia on CO2
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por: Mark Duchamp (20/08/2008)